Issue #9 May 4, 2026

Single-Vendor Risk, Microsoft's Latest Brand Reshuffle, the Founder Exodus — and Why You Should Stop Asking AI to Make Better Slides

Editor's Take

Three threads worth pulling on this week. First: Claude Opus 4.7's hallucination concerns are not getting better with time, and the lesson runs deeper than one model release. The dominant story in enterprise AI strategy is still "pick a vendor and go." But what most teams are not pricing in is the supply-chain risk that comes with single-point-of-sourcing your model layer. When the vendor regresses, your workflow regresses. Diversification matters in AI for the same reason it matters in semiconductor procurement and component sourcing — and it is not yet table stakes.

Second: Microsoft launched Agent 365, which is genuinely useful — and also the third or fourth time in twelve months that Microsoft has rebranded its enterprise AI surface. Cortana → Copilot → Copilot Cowork → Copilot Skills → Agent 365, give or take a layer. At some point this stops being product marketing and starts being a tax on enterprise procurement teams trying to buy the right thing. Microsoft being Microsoft. Capability remains real; the brand chaos is real too.

Third: senior staff are leaving Meta, Google, and OpenAI to start AI companies in numbers that even seasoned investors describe as the founding pattern of the decade. The interesting thing is not that talented people are starting companies — they always have. The interesting thing is that the playbook for starting an AI company in 2026 is fundamentally different than the playbook five years ago. Different capital structures, different model maturity, different go-to-market motion. Whether this wave produces durable companies or a graveyard of half-finished demos is genuinely unpredictable from where we sit. The Org section today picks up the same theme from a different angle: most organizations are still asking AI to make better slides when they should be asking which artifacts AI just made obsolete.

This Week's Essay

Stop Asking AI to Make Better Slides

The plug-and-play trap, and what it tells us about where AI adoption actually fails.

Heads-up: ~2,200 words, roughly an 8-minute read. Continues a thread we started in Issue #5 (the electricity / process-rebuild argument).
Disclaimer: All opinions in this essay are my own. They do not represent the company's position. This is meant as an academic discussion of organizational change.

There is a particular conversation I keep having with executives across industries. Someone shows me an AI-generated slide deck — well-formatted, clean, professional. They tell me how much faster it was to produce. They ask how to make the next one even better. The slides are not bad. The time saved is real. And yet the entire exercise is missing the point.

Slides exist because of a constraint nobody questions anymore. They were the artifact of a pre-AI era — a way to compress information into a portable, projectable, linear format that one human could narrate to a roomful of others. Every choice in slide design is downstream of that constraint. Bullet points exist because the audience cannot read paragraphs at projection speed. Static charts exist because you cannot interact with a slide. The five-bullet rule, the picture-superiority effect, the no-more-than-six-rows-of-table heuristic — all of it is engineering around the limitations of a medium that was the best we had in 1995.

AI does not just make slides faster. AI makes slides obsolete for most of the things we currently use them for. With the same effort it now takes to ask a model to "make me a deck on Q3 performance," you can ask it to build an interactive HTML dashboard where the audience explores the data themselves, drills into the segments that interest them, and walks away with answers to questions you would not have thought to address in a static deck. The dashboard is not a slightly better slide. It is a different artifact, made possible by a capability that did not exist when the slide-based workflow was designed.

Most AI adoption is currently asking the wrong question. The question is not "how do I do my existing work faster with AI." It is "which of my existing artifacts, processes, and workflows were shaped by constraints that AI has now removed — and what should replace them?"

This is the lesson the historical record keeps trying to teach us, and it is the lesson most organizations are still failing to learn.

The Electricity Pattern, Again

Factory redesign during electrification — from central-shaft layouts to unit-drive workflows
The factory redesign that unlocked electrification's productivity gains — moving from central-shaft layouts to unit-drive workflows took forty years.

Economist Paul David's 1990 paper "The Dynamo and the Computer" is required reading for anyone doing AI strategy. David documented why factory electrification, which arrived in the 1880s, produced almost no measurable productivity gains for nearly forty years. The reason was not that electric motors were inferior. They were superior on every relevant dimension. The reason was that factory owners installed electric motors as direct replacements for steam engines — keeping the same building layout, the same long mechanical shaft running the length of the factory, the same machine arrangements. They got electric power. They kept the steam-era workflow.

The transformative gains arrived only when factory owners realized they could put a small motor on every individual machine, eliminate the central shaft entirely, and redesign the factory itself around what electricity actually enabled. Single-story buildings replaced multi-story ones. Machines were arranged by workflow rather than by proximity to the power source. Production lines became reconfigurable. Once this happened, productivity exploded — electrification is widely credited with roughly half of U.S. manufacturing productivity growth during the 1920s.

Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson have shown that AI exhibits the same pattern, more pronounced. Measured productivity lags in the early years of any general-purpose technology because organizations are absorbing the cost of complementary investments — new processes, new skills, new structures — that are required to actually deliver the gains. The gains are real. They just do not arrive until the operating model itself is rebuilt.

The slides example is the everyday version of this. We are using AI to make the steam-era artifact faster, when AI actually enables the unit-drive equivalent — interactive, exploratory, reconfigurable — that the old workflow could never have produced. Multiply this across every process in a typical organization, and you can see why most AI initiatives report modest productivity gains rather than the order-of-magnitude transformations the technology actually enables.

There are three things organizations need to get right to escape the slides trap. They are not specific to any industry.

1. Stop Asking How AI Improves Existing Work. Ask What Existing Work AI Makes Obsolete.

The plug-and-play layer of AI is real and worth adopting. Faster email drafting, automated meeting notes, document summarization — these tools save real time and have genuine value. Most organizations should be using them.

But the plug-and-play layer is the streetlamp version of AI. In the 1880s, the most visible application of electricity was streetlighting, which replaced the labor of lamplighters who had walked the streets each evening lighting castor-oil lamps by hand. Streetlighting was a real improvement. It was also almost beside the point. The transformative power of electricity was in what it would eventually do inside factories — and that transformation required the factory itself to be rebuilt.

The transformative layer of AI lives in the same place: not in the tools, but in the workflows the tools make possible to redesign. Client onboarding that synthesizes information without manual re-keying. Continuous monitoring that eliminates the need for periodic reviews. Decision-making processes that operate on real-time data rather than quarterly snapshots. Cross-functional coordination that happens through shared AI-maintained context rather than meetings.

The diagnostic question is simple. Look at any artifact your organization produces — a report, a deck, a memo, a dashboard, a quarterly review. Ask: was this artifact's form shaped by constraints that AI has now removed? If the answer is yes, the artifact itself is a candidate for replacement, not optimization.

2. Build the New Workflow in One Place First, Not Across the Whole Organization.

Rogers / Moore diffusion of innovations curve showing innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards
The Rogers / Moore diffusion-of-innovations curve — and the chasm between early adopters and the early majority where most technology initiatives die.

The temptation, once a leader sees the gap between the streetlamp layer and the transformative layer, is to launch a firm-wide AI initiative. This almost always fails, for reasons Geoffrey Moore documented in 1991. Moore's framework, building on Everett Rogers's diffusion of innovations theory, shows that any population contains roughly 13.5% early adopters, who tolerate rough edges to gain advantage, and a 34% early majority who only adopt when the technology is "complete" — with references, support, and predictable outcomes from peers they consider comparable. Between these two groups is a chasm. Most technology initiatives die in it.

But there is a deeper reason firm-wide initiatives fail, and it is more important than the chasm itself. Firm-wide initiatives produce compromise. Compromise erodes scope. Eroded scope dilutes impact. When an organization announces an AI strategy that applies to everyone, every constituency negotiates for accommodations. Compliance asks for additional review steps. Operations asks for integration with existing systems designed for the old workflow. Senior practitioners ask for opt-outs. Each accommodation is locally reasonable. The cumulative result is a strategy that has been adjusted, softened, and partially exempted into something that no longer represents real workflow change. The organization has technically deployed AI. The transformative gains do not arrive.

Capital One is the canonical example of doing this right. In 1988, two consultants named Richard Fairbank and Nigel Morris convinced Signet Bank to let them build a credit card division operating under what they called Information-Based Strategy — continuous experimentation, individual customer pricing, integrated cross-functional decision-making. They had pitched the same idea to roughly thirty banks. Most declined. The idea required, as Fairbank later put it, "virtually starting over, rebuilding a very different company." Signet's protected division ran thousands of small experiments, iterated weekly, and built a model that the rest of the banking industry could not replicate. In 1994, the division was spun off as Capital One. By 2025, after acquiring Discover, the combined entity served over 100 million customers.

The structural lesson is that AI-native workflows require continuous experimentation, integrated cross-functional teams, and rapid iteration that traditional operating models cannot accommodate without abandoning what makes them work today. The right move is not to retrofit existing operations. The right move is to build the new operating model in a protected segment — staffed with early adopters not just from the operating teams but from every supporting function (compliance, risk, legal, marketing, HR, operations) — designed from day one with a migration path back to the core business.

3. Pick the Segment Carefully.

The third strategic choice is where, in the organization's market or operations, the protected segment should live. The default assumption — that experimentation should happen with the most valuable customers or the highest-stakes processes — is exactly wrong. The protected segment should live where the conditions for genuine workflow rebuild are most favorable.

Rebar — the low-margin segment of the steel industry that Nucor used to build a different production model
Rebar — the unglamorous low-margin segment Nucor used to build a fundamentally different steel production model, before climbing the ladder to displace U.S. Steel from the top.

Clayton Christensen's framework of disruptive innovation provides the criterion. Christensen's canonical example is Nucor in the steel industry. Nucor's electric arc furnace technology could initially only produce low-grade steel, so it started with rebar — the bottom of the steel quality ladder, with 7% margins, ignored by integrated producers protecting their 25–30% margins on automotive sheet steel. Over two decades, Nucor moved up through angle iron and bars, then structural steel, and finally sheet steel itself, displacing incumbents at each step.

Christensen's deeper point is often missed. The low end was not a consolation prize for Nucor. It was the only place where a fundamentally different production model could mature — long enough to get good — without competing against incumbent quality standards. Inside U.S. Steel, the same project would have been killed by finance for diluting margins and by operations for failing automotive specs. Nucor needed the protection of a segment the incumbents considered uninteresting.

Every organization has its rebar segment. For an established RIA, it is the mass-affluent client base that traditional advisor economics cannot serve profitably. For an enterprise software company, it might be the small-business tier the enterprise sales motion ignores. For a healthcare system, it might be the asynchronous-care use cases that current clinical workflows cannot accommodate. The criterion is the same in every case: a segment with distinct economics, lower defensive entrenchment, real demand, and the freedom to operate under a fundamentally different operating model.

What This Means This Week

Pick one artifact your organization produces routinely — a deck, a report, a review, a dashboard. Ask three questions about it.

First: was the form of this artifact shaped by constraints that AI has now removed? If yes, the artifact is a candidate for redesign, not optimization. Stop asking AI to make better slides. Ask whether you should be making slides at all.

Second: if you were to build the redesigned version, where in your organization could you actually build it without firm-wide compromise destroying it? That is your protected segment.

Third: what would the migration plan look like — how would the new artifact, once mature, replace the old one across the rest of the organization? Because the protected segment is not the destination. It is the training ground.

The factory owners of the 1880s did not transform manufacturing by buying better motors. They transformed it by tearing down the shaft-based factory and building something new around what electricity actually enabled. The organizations that get the most out of AI will not be the ones with the best tools. They will be the ones willing to ask which of their existing artifacts, processes, and workflows are slides — and have the patience to build the dashboards that replace them.

Citations and Future Readings

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